Final Four Betting Picks
With the exception of Super Bowl Sunday, there is no bigger day in sports than the Final Four. Hordes of fans and media have flocked to the “House that Jerry Built” or “Jerry’s World” to witness college basketball’s Super Saturday, and of course millions upon millions will be watching in homes and bars across the globe. It’s also a massive day for Vegas, as countless bets will be wagered on each of the four teams taking the court at AT&T Stadium. Who will march on to Monday night’s title game and why? Here’s a breakdown.
(7) CONNECTICUT VS (1) FLORIDA -6.5
Is UConn getting enough respect here? Some might not think so, but lest we forget, Florida has reeled off an improbable and impressive 30 consecutive wins. This list of fallen opponents shouldn’t be overlooked: Kansas, Memphis, Tennessee, Pitt, UCLA, Dayton, and Kentucky thrice. The Gators excel at defending every inch of the floor by applying constant pressure on the ball. They also excel at neutralizing an opposing offense’s strength. In this case, that strength is do-it-all Huskie point guard Shabazz Napier, the tourney’s most lethal scorer.
In the first meeting on December 2nd, Napier netted 26 points, including the buzzer-beating game-winner. How will Florida limit his timely playmaking? One name: Scottie Wilbekin. The senior guard defines what Billy Donovan covets in a player: Wilbekin is a tenacious defender, clutch shooter, and charismatic leader on both ends of the court. He sat out the final three minutes of the December 2nd loss due to a sprained ankle. Had he been available, maybe Napier’s game-winning jumper might have missed the mark. Regardless, he and the rest of his mates are motivated to avenge said defeat.
Napier has been lights out, but Donovan’s game-plan will force others to score. DeAndre Daniels and Ryan Boatright are complementary options not in Napier’s class. UConn will hang around and make Florida earn it, but the Gators will prove too much.
Bet Florida SU, Bet UCONN +6.5
(8) KENTUCKY VS (2) WISCONSIN +1.5
Everyone knows Connecticut was the last team to beat Florida. Guess who the first team to beat Florida was? Yup, Wisconsin, way back on November 12th. They also beat Virginia, Saint Louis, Michigan State, Michigan, Iowa twice, Oregon, Baylor, and Arizona. That’s a 3-0 record versus number one seeds. The Badgers have been underestimated all season long and aren’t being given much of a chance against the high-flying Wildcats on Saturday. Bo Ryan doesn’t care. Neither does Frank Kaminsky. Or Ben Brust. Or Traveon Jackson. Wisconsin just finds ways to beat teams they aren’t supposed to beat. Lineups that are bigger, more physical, and more athletic. As if the Badgers players aren’t athletes.
Defending Kentucky six weeks ago was a lot easier than it is now. Collapse in the paint and force their accuracy-challenged guards to knock down long-range jumpers. Julius Randle, Dakari Johnson, Alex Poythress, and Marcus Lee are an imposing foursome of low block talents, but unless the Harrison twins and James Young are hitting three-pointers, the ‘Cats are vulnerable. Wisconsin handled Baylor’s towering front line and limited the Bears to 2-15 from beyond the arc. Kentucky is obviously more skilled than Baylor, but the recipe to defeating them is similar. Stopping Kaminsky will be a tall order for John Calipari’s crew. Expect all of the ‘Cats bigs to take turns muscling Kaminsky, who might be the most deft low post threat in the nation.
Kentucky’s youth doesn’t seem to be a liability anymore. That’s bad news for Wisconsin. Look for Calipari to ratchet up the pace. The Badgers run better than previous years, but would still prefer a half-court game.
Bet Kentucky SU and Kentucky -1.5
