College Football Betting: Georgia State at Idaho

College Football Betting:  Georgia State at Idaho

‘On paper’ this looks like one of the classic ‘lowland team playing in high altitude out West’ games I love. The dynamics of this game are much more complex. We’ll start by the inexplicable turnaround in the Idaho Vandals’ fortunes this season. Idaho’s records in the last four seasons: 1-11, 1-11, 1-11 and 4-8. This year, however, they’re 7-4 overall and 5-2 in conference. They’ll be going to a bowl game for the first time in ions and that will be the case regardless of the outcome of this game. Georgia State is a better team than their 3-8 SU/2-5 conference record suggests. They opened the season on a 1-5 run due in large part to a tough early schedule (games against Ball State, Air Force, Wisconsin and Appalachian State dropped them in a 0-4 hole out of the game).

Georgia State was money in the bank… the betting window. The Panthers are 7-4 ATS overall, 5-2 ATS as a dog and 4-1 ATS on the road. They’re also 3-0 ATS as a conference road dog. They’ve been undervalued for the fast few years when they play away from home. In fact, they’ve got the best road record against the spread in FBS football going 14-3 ATS during the last three years and going back even more have covered 19 of their last 25 away games.

Idaho also has a good ATS record this year which will happen if the ‘public’ is used to you winning only one game a year. They’re just 2-2 ATS at home this season and 6-9 ATS at home during the last three years. Paul Petrino has done a nice job upgrading the talent at Idaho but there’s little to suggest that they can cover this number in this situation. They won by 7 last week against South Alabama covering as a -6.5 dog. South Alabama is playing out the string while Georgia State is still scrapping. The Panthers beat Georgia Southern on 11/19 and have had a bye week to refocus. Facing a team that was life and death covering a similar price against a lower qualitative level last week and with nothing in this game to improve their bowl status this looks like a perfect spot to go against the home team. The Panthers are the perfect team to take advantage of that spot. Weather will be cold with a ‘wintry mix’ possible but guess what–it won’t matter indoors at the Kibbie Dome.