College Football Betting: Nevada at San Diego State

Friday Mountain West Conference play between Nevada and San Diego State. Neither team has really done much so far this season and both enter this contest with somewhat disappointing records. The San Diego State Aztecs are 1-3 on the season. After opening play with an 0-3 record SDSU rebounded to beat lowly New Mexico State in their last game but failed to cover the pointspread as -16′ point road favorites leaving them 1-3 against the spread this season. Nevada is 3-2 SU with wins over Cal Davis, Hawaii and Air Force but just 2-3 against the spread.

San Diego State won at New Mexico State last weekend but the fact that they had as much trouble as they did with their opponents tells us much about this team. Their offense is very sluggish and if they have trouble scoring against NMSU’s class they’re going to struggle against anyone. The team has had some injuries on both sides of the ball but much of their problem is a profound lack of playmakers on offense. There’s nothing wrong with a power rushing attack but SDSU’s is more of a plodding, workmanlike offense with few big play threats. That makes this game against a more potent Nevada attack a very bad tactical matchup for the home team.

Nevada a much better team with multifaceted quarterback Cody Fajardo in the lineup–he’s sort of a ‘poor man’s’ Colin Kaepernick at this point. He’s a threat both on the ground and through the air as evidenced by his 470 yards of total offense last week against Air Force. Nevada’s defense is nothing special, but they performed adequately against the Air Force option last week and should be up to the task of handling San Diego State’s plodding offense.

Wolfpack are playing with revenge for a one point defeat at Reno last year (missed a two point conversion that would have won the game) and at the very least last year’s matchup suggests that this one should be tightly contested. We think Nevada is the better team and we’ll gladly take whatever points are available with the Wolfpack. Nevada hasn’t ‘traveled well’ in recent years (4-10 ATS away from Reno since 2011) but nothing about SDSU suggests that they’ll be able to extend a margin.

BET NEVADA +4′ OVER SAN DIEGO STATE