MLB Baseball Betting: Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds

MLB Baseball Betting:  Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds

Two of the worst teams in baseball go at it on Saturday at the Great American Ballpark as the Cincinnati Reds host the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Reds have been awful over the past month or so. They check in in last place in the NL Central with a 36-59 record 21.5 games back of the division leading Chicago Cubs (pending Friday night results). They’re 5 games back of the fourth place Milwaukee Brewers despite the Brewers 3-7 run over the last 10 games. Arizona is in last place in the NL West with a 40-55 record 17 games back of the first place San Francisco Giants. Arizona has lost 7 of 10 but there’s at least one mitigating factor–they have a winning road record at 23-20 which has produced +8.6 units of profit. The bad news–they’ve been one of the worst home teams in baseball. At home the Diamondbacks are 17-35 -24.2 units. That’s the second worst home record in Major League Baseball ahead of only the Atlanta Braves.

Arizona will start lefthander Robbie Ray. He’s been mediocre at best but his ERA isn’t as bad as his team’s record in his starts would suggest. Arizona has lost 13 of his 19 starts including 7 of 9 on the road. They’ve also lost two of his last three starts. Ray has a 4.40 ERA overall (1.514 WHIP) and a 3.70 ERA on the road (1.500 WHIP). His last three ERA is 3.50 with a 1.389 WHIP. That’s not Cy Young material but there are a lot of pitchers with higher ERAs that have a much better team W/L record.

Cincinnati will start right hander Keyvius Sampson who’ll make a spot start out of the bullpen–his first of the year. Sampson usually works long relief but the Reds are giving him a shot at the starting gig figuring that he can’t do any worse than the other pitchers in the bottom of their rotation. It might be a favorable matchup for him–Arizona is 28-40 -10.2 units against right handed starters this season.

Of course that is mitigated by the Reds’ putrid performance against lefthanders. Arizona has lost money against right handers but their offensive output is roughly the same as in all games. Cincinnati averages only 3.5 runs per game against lefthanders which accounts for their brutal 6-15 -7.8 record against southpaws. Arizona has been a very solid road team so we’ll play them here.