MLB Baseball Betting: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants

MLB Baseball Betting:  Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants

Yogi Berra passed away earlier this week and among his many famous quotes was one completely appropriate for this game: “It ain’t over til it’s over”. The Los Angeles Dodgers are playing a very dangerous game with the San Francisco Giants who aren’t going away as LA tries to clinch the NL West. The Dodgers have been playing poor baseball through much of September and enter this contest having lost seven of their last nine games. The longer they go without clinching the playoff spot the more dangerous things become for the Dodgers.

Today’s game isn’t a particularly good matchup for Los Angeles. They do have their ‘ace’ on the mound but so does San Francisco. The Dodgers will start Clayton Kershaw who hasn’t been overwhelmingly impressive this season. In fact, the Dodgers have lost 9 of his 15 road starts despite Kershaw putting up a decent (but again not great) ERA of 2.82. He’ll be opposed by Giants’ lefthander Madison Bumgarner who has been solid this season despite not always getting run support from his teammates. At home, Bumgarner has a 1.80 ERA and San Francisco has won 9 of his 16 starts. In his last three starts he’s got an ERA of 1.50–but the Giants managed to lose two of those games.

The Dodgers have been lousy on the road all season long. LA has a record of 35-43 -24.8 units away from Chavez Ravine and they’ve had nothing but trouble in San Francisco. The Giants have won all 7 head to head meetings at AT&T Park. The Dodgers have lost money against left handed pitching (-7.8 units) while the Giants have turned a small profit. As a road favorite in this price range (-125 to -150) the Dodgers are 8-16 -13.7 units.

There’s only one reason that the Dodgers are favored–they’re in a ‘must win’ situation. One of the first things a sports bettor learns is that you’re more often better served by going against teams in ‘must win’ spots than playing on them. We’ll gladly take San Francisco–a good home team against a bad road team with the better statistical pitcher on the mound. The Giants have nothing to lose and are enjoying their role as a foil for the Dodgers.