MLB Baseball Betting: Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies

MLB Baseball Betting:  Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies

Very interesting–and particularly significant–National League East series begins in Philadelphia on Monday night as the Phillies and Miami Marlins start a four game series. This series is a great opportunity for Philadelphia who can take a big bite out of the deficit between them and the playoff contenders in the division. On the other hand, it’s a good opportunity for the Marlins to extend their advantage over the Phillies and cut into Washington’s six game lead. Then there’s the New York Mets who enter play today tied with the Marlins for second place. Miami has won 7 of 10 while the Phillies have won 6 of 10.

Miami will start right hander Jose Fernandez who has pitched well this year–though better at home than on the road. Overall, Fernandez has a 2.52 ERA and a 1.015 WHIP. The Marlins have won 12 of his 17 starts overall but here’s the problem–they’re 8-2 in his home starts meaning that they’ve got a money losing 4-3 -1.4 unit loss when he takes the ball on the road. He’s a good pitcher but might be a tad overvalued–to wit: the Marlins won 2 of his last 3 starts but lost more than a unit (-0.6 units). His ERA over his L3 starts was 3.20 with a 1.118 WHIP and a very impressive 29 strikeout to 4 walk ratio.

Philadelphia will start Aaron Nola and who knows what they’ll get. The Phillies have lost 10 of his 17 starts overall this season including 6 of 8 at home (-4.9 units). He’s been downright wretched in his last three games–all Phillies losses. The nasty looking line for those games including 11.3 innings pitched or an average of 3.8 innings per start. 17 earned runs and 23 hits. He did strike out 13 while walking 4. Not sure if the Phillies have any better options at the moment but it’s hard to imagine that even a mediocre minor league callup would be worse than Nola in his current form.

But as every ‘sharp’ player knows we’re not betting teams we’re betting prices and the price on the Marlins is just too chalky. Nola has pitched well in two career starts against Miami while the Marlins are 2-3 when Fernandez starts against Philadelphia. We’ll take the price and the ‘Over’.