MLB Baseball Betting: Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres

MLB Baseball Betting:  Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres

Two teams trying to claw their way up in the standings of their respective divisions play on Wednesday afternoon as the Milwaukee Brewers face the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. The Brewers are in fourth place in the NL Central 4.5 games up on the last place Cincinnati Reds (all records pending Tuesday results) and 6 games back of the third place Pittsburgh Pirates. They’re 16.5 games back of the division leading Chicago Cubs. The San Diego Padres are 3 games ahead of the last place Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West and 6.5 games back of the third place Colorado Rockies. They’re 15 games back of the first place San Francisco Giants. The Brewers have won 7 of 10 though they lost the first game of the series on Monday night. San Diego has split their last ten games.

Milwaukee will start right hander Junior Guerrera who has been in good form of late and has been pretty solid all season long. Guerra has a 2.70 ERA overall with a 1.045 and the Brewers have won 11 of his 16 starts this season. He’s got a 3.38 ERA on the road and a 1.031 WHIP with Milwaukee winning 6 of his 7 road starts–a pretty significant feat for a team that is 17-32 away from home. He’s pitched very well in his last three starts with a 1.29 ERA and a 0.952 WHIP but the Brewers haven’t done their part losing 2 of his last three starts.

San Diego will start veteran Edwin Jackson who joined the team in mid-July. He hasn’t been especially impressive with San Diego losing 2 of his 3 starts. His first start was solid, as he held San Francisco to 1 hit and 2 earned runs in a Padres win but even that had some issues–he walked 5 and gave up a home run. Overall, he’s got a 5.19 ERA with a 1.558 WHIP allowing 17 hits and 10 earned runs with 10 walks and 8 strikeouts.

Kneejerk reaction is to back Guerrera against the struggling Jackson but Milwaukee losing two games with their pitcher going so well is problematic. We’d rather back the Padres who have turned a small profit at home (25-27 +4.6 units) while the Brewers have been miserable on the road (17-32 -10.5 units).