MLB Baseball Betting: Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals

MLB Baseball Betting:  Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals need to put some wins in the book over the Fourth of July weekend. They’re not going to catch the Chicago Cubs playing .500 baseball and actually managed to lose ground on the NL Central leaders during Chicago’s recent downturn. The Cubs have cooled off somewhat but they’re still the best team in baseball and St. Louis is just two games over .500. That sets the stage for the next ten days when they play 7 home games and three road games against divisional rivals starting this weekend against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers are a tough team to figure–they’ve looked very good at times but have not been able to maintain any time of positive momentum and especially on the road where they’re 13-23 for the second worst away record in the National League. They’re 2.5 games back of the third place Pittsburgh Pirates and five game back of the Cardinals. With 6 games in the next two weeks against St. Louis they could make up a lot of ground if they can get on a roll.

The Brewers will start right hander Jimmy Nelson who has been in marginal form at best this year and very bad form of late. Milwaukee has lost his last three starts with Nelson posting a 4.61 ERA and a 1.756 WHIP. That’s better than his road numbers this season (5.66 ERA) but nowhere near his YTD numbers (3.60 ERA, 1.348 WHIP). The Brewers have lost 9 of his 16 starts this season including 4 of 7 on the road. He’ll be opposed by Adam Wainwright who isn’t doing particularly well this year either though the Cards have managed to win games when he starts. Wainwright has a 5.05 ERA overall though St. Louis is 10-6 in his 16 assignments. They’re 4-3 at home with Wainwright putting up a 3.65 ERA and a 1.218 WHIP. They’ve dropped two of his last three starts though Wainwright bitched well except for the last start–a 5 IP 6 ER fiasco against Kansas City.

Price is the play as this matchup looks a lot more even ‘on paper’ than the pricing suggests. Nelson struggled against the Cards last year but that’s not enough for us to lay a price with a very inconsistent St. Louis side.