MLB Baseball Betting: St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies

MLB Baseball Betting:  St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies

The St. Louis Cardinals might not have enough to run down the Chicago Cubs but they’ve got a great shot at making the playoffs as a wildcard–assuming they can keep the Pittsburgh Pirates in the rear view mirror. The Cards lead Pittsburgh by 2 games and need to keep winning to keep them–and several other teams–from taking over their wild card spot. So far so good–St. Louis has won 5 straight and 7 of 10 and have the opportunity to extend that streak as they play the Philadelphia Phillies in the second game of their weekend series. The Phillies have done a remarkable job digging themselves out of an early season hole but now they’re just ‘treading water’ with a 5-5 record in their last ten games.

The Cardinals will give right hander Luke Weaver his second start of the season. Weaver didn’t exactly overwhelm the Chicago Cubs in his first start going 4 innings allowing 4 hits, 2 ER, 1 HR, 3 strikeouts and 3 walks. On the other hand, the Cardinals won the game which is ultimately what matters. The Phillies hit right handers reasonably well so that could be an unexpected test for Weaver. The Phillies are 43-52 +1.5 units against right handed pitchers and are a classic example of an underrated team that yields good value. They’re just 57-66 on the season but that’s good for +6.9 units of profit. In fact, they’ve got a profit (albeit small) in most situational breakdowns.

Philadelphia will counter with right hander Jeremy Hellickson who has been solid though not spectacular this year. Hellickson has a 3.65 ERA and a 1.140 WHIP overall, a 3.66 ERA and a 1.136 WHIP at home and a 3.63 ERA and a 1.269 WHIP in his last three starts. The Phillies are 14-10 overall when he starts including 6-6 at home and 3-0 in his last three. St. Louis has done well against right handed pitchers (48-36 +8.4 units) and extremely well on the road (37-23 +17.9 units).

Cards are in good form and simply can’t afford to lose. Weaver is a bit of a question mark but St. Louis hits the ball so much better than Philadelphia. Cards average 1.2 runs per game more than St. Louis and put up 5.6 per game on the road.