NBA Basketball Betting: Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors

NBA Basketball Betting:  Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors

There was every reason for the Golden State Warriors to suffer the infamous ‘Game 7 hangover’ as they started their NBA Finals series against the Cleveland Cavaliers. They not only won the Western Conference Finals in seven games but fought back from a 3-1 deficit in the process. Cleveland was rested and ready–but there was no hangover. At their worst, LeBron James’ Cavaliers act like they’re of the opinion that they can just show up to the arena and win games regardless of the quality of the opposition. That was on display in Game One and the Warriors had no problem whatsoever with Cleveland winning in a rout.

It’s hard to imagine that Golden State won’t suffer a ‘flat spot’ at some point during this series coming off their roller coaster ride against Oklahoma City in the conference finals. For Cleveland, the best case scenario is that Game One gave them a much needed ‘reality check’ and that they can now get down to business. The Cavs were a decent road team this season (24-17) but that might not be enough against a team that lost only twice at home all year.

But as we so often stress, the name of the game in sports betting is value. If you can find the value and bet accordingly you can ignore the rest of the noise and be confident that you will make money in the long run. That being said, the NBA has been very tough to properly valuate this season–how do you come up with strong numbers in a league where there is one dominant team and 29 others that are clearly a cut below? Cleveland may be the best team in the East (though they just won the conference by 1 game over Toronto) and could even be the ‘best of the rest’ besides Golden State (though San Antonio and OKC might have a claim). That doesn’t change the fact that it’s tough to come up with a comparative valuation of these sides.

If LeBron plays up to his ability, he can hurt the Warriors where they are most vulnerable–to inside physicality. At this price, we’ll take a shot that this is how it goes down.