NBA Betting: Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks

NBA Betting:  Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks managed to go on a furious run at the end of Game 2 that gave them the point spread cover but of course that matters little outside of the sports betting arena. The reality is that they are down 0-2 to the defending NBA Champion Miami Heat and face a veritable ‘must win’ situation on their home floor tonight. Everyone knows that a NBA team has never come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a 7 game series so if Milwaukee is serious about competing against the mighty Heat this is where they’ll have to make a stand.

Statistically, things don’t look promising for the Bucks. Miami was a very good road team this season going 29-12 SU and 24-17 against the spread. They were especially tough in this price range–as road favorites of -6.5 to -9 points Miami was 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS. Since the midway point of the season they’ve also cleaned up against opponents with losing records–and Milwaukee is the only team with a losing record that qualified for the NBA playoffs–going 25-0 SU/16-9 ATS.

Milwaukee, meanwhile, was just an average home team going 21-20 SU and a substandard 15-25 ATS. They struggled mightily against superior opposition in the second half of the season–something of a ‘negative image’ to the Heat’s success in that situation. Since the midway point of the regular season Milwaukee is 5-19 SU/8-16 ATS against opponents with winning records. On the other hand, they have been competitive with the heat on their home floor. They split two games (SU and ATS) against Miami at home this year and have covered 3 of the last six meetings at home (though Miami holds a 4-2 SU edge). And as the outcome of Game 2 demonstrated, pointspreads on Miami are definitely getting a bit ‘puffy’ and you’re apt to find some value by going against them due to their status as the NBA’s quintessential ‘public’ team.

The Bucks need this game to survive and for that reason we’re expecting a focus, intense effort from the home side. Even if they don’t manage to steal the outright win and make this a competitive series again there’s enough margin for error that a decent effort should be sufficient to cover this number.