NBA Betting Picks: Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors

NBA Betting Picks:  Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors

The Denver Nuggets have done a horrible job managing their first round Western Conference series with the Golden State Warriors and they could find themselves facing elimination when they return home for Game 5. That will be determined by the outcome of Sunday’s Game 4 and a victory by the Warriors will put them up 3-1 heading back to Denver. Denver appeared to have this series well in hand after a Game 1 victory but the gritty Warriors grabbed a hard fought Game 2 win and then took the lead in the series with a solid comeback victory in Game 3. In theory, Golden State should be in bad shape at the moment–they’ve lost their best interior scorer and defender David Lee to a season ending injury but instead they’ve been playing with heart and resolve.

Denver was in poor form to close out the regular season and three games into the playoffs now find themselves on a horrible ATS run in which they’ve failed to cover 6 of their last 7 games. The Golden State Warriors were one of the surprise teams of the regular season and have been money in the bank from a betting perspective in the late days of the regular season til now. Golden State has covered 11 of their last 15 games and all three of the games in this series.

The Nuggets have been one of the toughest home teams in the league for years now but have not matched that performance on the road. Even against a Golden State team that until recently was among the dregs of the NBA they’ve struggled–the Warriors have won 22 of the last 33 games head to head on their home floor. Golden State has also won 4 of the last 6 though the teams have split the ATS results. We just don’t like where Denver’s head is at during this playoff series and conversely we love the tenacity that the home team is showing. We’ll look for Golden State’s strong stretch run to continue and look for them to take Game 4 and send the series back to Denver leading 3-1. Denver can get back into the series but there’s a good chance that they’ll need to return to their tough home court to do it.