NBA Betting Picks: Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks

NBA Betting Picks:  Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks

A decade or so ago the ‘zig zag theory’ was all in vogue for NBA playoff handicappers. The theory worked like this–in the NBA playoffs bet against the team that won the previous game. It worked for awhile but like many ‘systems’ quit working due to a confluence of factors, not the least of which was the fact that bookmakers were “on” to it and shaded their lines accordingly. At least among serious sports bettors, no one takes it seriously anymore but year after year the ‘squares’ trot it out and try to suggest that it’s a licence to print money.

To be sure, there are some valid concepts at play with the ‘zig zag theory’. Teams that play well in one game often ‘let down’ in the next. Teams that find themselves down in a serious play with a greater sense of urgency the next time out. The only problem is that you can’t generalize about these things on a universal basis–some teams respond well to adversity (eg: the Chicago Bulls this season) while others don’t (eg: the Denver Nuggets). We’re not saying that the New York Knicks aren’t a team that will ‘play with heart’ and respond to their Game 1 loss to the Indiana Pacers–they very well might. We just don’t think that the ‘price is right’ and have no interest in laying the number with them.

Admittedly, Indiana is a tough team to figure. They’ve been a mediocre road team all season (22-22 ATS) and were downright pitiful in Games 3 and 4 of their opening series at the Phillips Arena in Atlanta. New York is a much better team in a much tougher venue but for whatever reason Indiana has had a fair amount of success against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden dating back to the days when dinosaurs like Reggie Miller and Rik Smits roamed the hardwood. The Knicks were a very good home team this year but they showed some ‘weakness’ in allowing their series against the Boston Celtics–a team running on fumes–to be extended to six games. Money is coming in on New York here moving the line from an opening number of -5 to the current -6. Maybe it’s the zig zag theory, maybe it isn’t but in our view its too many points to be laying against a solid Pacers team.