NBA Betting Picks: Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers

NBA Betting Picks:  Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers

The Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers head back out West after nothing was settled during the first four games. The Clippers took the first two games on their home court at the Staples Center but the Grizzlies responded in kind at the Fed Ex Forum in Memphis to even the slate at 2 games apiece. The total on this game is a very low 180 so sports handicapping 101 would suggest that since points are expected to be at a premium that the underdog is the smart play?

Not so fast–the Grizzlies are a very good defensive team but lay more ‘bricks’ than a masonry convention. That means that even if they try to slow tempo they could be vulnerable to the superior rebounding Clippers. And since this is the NBA and this series has compelling storylines and could easily go 7 games that the Clippers will be the beneficiaries of some ‘home cooking’ officiating to help facilitate that. They’ll be able to be even more aggressive ‘in the paint’ and get out in transition.

The Clippers have been a strong investment in ‘revenge’ situations this season–even factoring in a loss in Game 4 of this series they’re 17-7 SU/16-8 ATS in this situation. Memphis is admittedly a tough team to bet against in any situation–they’ve got a winning record in most situational spots and are one of only two NBA teams to cover 50 games to date this season (Oklahoma City is the other). Nevertheless, we expect a big game from Chris Paul after a couple of disappointing outings in Memphis. At any rate, he’ll get plenty of help from the referees and get to the line often.

And as noted at the outside of our analysis we expect this to be a low scoring game played at a deliberate tempo. This is the only way that Memphis can win but that may not help them here. Still, we look for the Clippers to win and cover a relatively low scoring contest. Los Angeles will try to defend better after a shoddy performance in Memphis and they’ll be helped by the Grizzlies’ typically low shooting percentage.