NFL Football Betting: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

NFL Football Betting:  Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

One of the more enduring rivalries in the NFL is renewed on Thursday night as the Chicago Bears take on the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. These teams have played a combined 192 times dating back to 1941 and the series has been very evenly contested. Currently, the Bears hold a 94-92-6 edge but the record they’re more concerned with at the moment is their 2016 1-5 SU mark. Green Bay has been good though not great so far this season with a 3-2 SU record.

To say that John Fox isn’t having an easy time turning around the Chicago Bears is an understatement. They’ve played fairly well since Brian Hoyer has taken over at quarterback with Jay Cutler sidelined with a thumb injury and he’s played very well with four consecutive 300+ yard games, 6 TDs and no interceptions. The reality, however, is that Chicago keeps finding new ways to lose games that they should win. They’ve got a weird dynamic on offense in that they get very good yardage but don’t ‘cash it in’ for scores. The Bears have the #7 yards per game average in the NFL (375.2) but the #31 points per game average (16.8). This logically doesn’t make much sense. Among the top ten yards per game teams none average fewer than 24.8 PPG.

Green Bay is playing the third game of a four game homestand and they’ve not quite got their offense in sync yet. They’ve turned the ball over 9 times in their past four games and simply aren’t playing well enough to justify this price. It’s also a case where the valuation on this game has produced a pointspread significantly ‘shaded’ toward the Packers. That’s what happens when a team that has put up excellent situational ATS numbers (like 20-12 ATS as a favorite) faces a team that is struggling. They get ‘overvalued’ and when they have a ‘brand name’ the public loves like the Packers do the valuation gets more out of whack. Getting the extra half point on the key number of 7 is huge. The Packers haven’t won a game by more than 7 all season long. The betting public hates the Bears and loves the Packers which has produced an overinflated line. We’re going to do the good contrarian thing and take the road team plus the points.