NFL Football Betting: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

The AFC South can make an excellent case for being the worst division in football. Tennessee and Jacksonville are always perpetually struggling to rebuild which leaves Houston and Indianapolis to contend for the divisional title every right. Right now it’s a logjam with the 3-2 Texans ‘leading’ the division followed by the 3-3 Tennessee Titans and the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts bringing up the rear at 2-3. The Texans have won all 3 games at home and lost 2 on the road. The Colts are 2-1 at home and 0-2 on the road. Houston has been a very good favorite in recent years going 14-2 SU/13-3 ATS in the least three seasons including 2-0 SU/ATS this year. They’ve also taken care of business against opponents with losing records going 11-2 SU/ATS.

The Colts don’t have a lot of standout pointspread situations during recent years which is likely due as much to their high profile ‘public’ status as anything else. They have done pretty well against Houston in recent years going 3-1 SU/2-1-1 ATS over the past three seasons including 2-0 SU/ATS in Houston. Their only loss during that run came 12/20/15. Indianapolis has Andrew Luck which in theory should give them an edge but his pass protection has been nonexistent this season. Luck has been sacked 20 times in five games. The Colts have a shabby defense but if they can keep the other team from scoring (or if the other team is offensively inept) they’re a very dangerous team on a 9-2 SU run when holding the opponents to under 27 PPG.

The bad news for Houston is that Brock Osweiler has been largely ineffective this season and the Texans have yet to score 27 points this season. They’re also very banged up on defense with JJ Watt and defensive tackle Devon Still out of action. Not really buying into Houton’s ‘home dominance’–their wins this year have come against Chicago, Kansas City and Tennessee. Indy is desperate for a win and to get out of the divisional basement. In a battle between somewhat overrated and definitely flawed teams we’d much rather take the points with the Colts. Indy doesn’t have as much to contend with from Texans’ defense due to injuries.

BET INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +3 OVER HOUSTON TEXANS