NFL Football Betting: Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

NFL Football Betting:  Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

No one expected the newly relocated Los Angeles Rams to be tied for the NFC West lead after three games but that’s exactly where they are. At the moment, they also hold the tiebreaker over the other 2-1 team at the top of the division, the Seattle Seahawks. The Rams prevailed in a strange game last week where their defense disappeared and their previous moribund offense took over the game. This week they’ll need a balanced effort if they’re going to beat the Arizona Cardinals on the road. The Cardinals dropped a tough decision to New England in their opening game of the year, rebounded to rip Tampa Bay in their second game before taking the long trip to Buffalo and losing 33-18 to a desperate Bills team.

It’s easy to write off last week’s Buffalo win over Arizona as a ‘bad day at the office’ for the Cardinals’. It’s doubtful that their head coach Bruce Arians feels that dismissive about it. It’s one thing to lose a game to a good team like the Patriots, quite another to lose badly to a bumbling Buffalo Bills team. In all honesty, the Cardinals beat themselves in this game with 5 turnovers, a pitiful passing attack and a negligible running game. Their defensive numbers don’t look bad but considering that Buffalo got the ball essentially served to them in good field position that doesn’t matter.

To be fair, this is a horrible ATS situation for Arizona. As a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points they’re on a 7-4 SU run but are just 1-10 ATS in those games. One thing that’s important to keep in mind about lopsided situational records like that is that they’re ripe for reversal. One common phenomenon in NFL betting is to see the public overreact to recency. By that metric, the recreational players have ‘downgraded’ Arizona this week while upgrading Los Angeles. We saw what Arizona is capable off when mad against Tampa Bay earlier this season and the Bucs are nowhere near as one diminisonal as the Rams who have running back Todd Gurley and little else. Arizona won last year’s home meeting with the Rams by 24 points and the ugly performance at Buffalo should give them the focus to do it again.