Week 4 NFL Picks
Just four weeks into the 2015 NFL season, inclement weather has already reared its destructive head to such a degree that it might affect at least one game on Sunday. As Hurricane Joaquin races up the Eastern seaboard, there’s a fairly good chance it will dump boatloads of rain all over the Eagles-Redskins 1pm game in D.C., prompting league officials to either move the game to another venue, or possibly postpone it until Monday night. And lest we forget, there’s also a London game between the Dolphins and Jets with a scheduled 9:30am kickoff (EDT) on Sunday. And for the second straight week oddsmakers have installed the Seahawks as double-digit home favorites on Monday night against Detroit. Here’s a look at a few of Week 4’s most intriguing matchups.
Carolina at Tampa Bay +3 – The Panthers have benefited greatly from a soft early season schedule, and a victory on Sunday will send them undefeated into their bye week. The ‘Cats defense ranks second in points allowed, which has helped offset an incredibly talent poor offense. Cam Newton is once again carrying the weight, but he seems to be playing under more control than in previous years. This sets up badly for the Bucs, who rank 30th in scoring. Rookie Jameis Winston completed less than 50% of his throws in two losses, and second-year receiver Mike Evans isn’t healthy enough to offer much help. Bucs are 2-8 ATS in their last ten home games. Panthers are 3-5-1 ATS in their last nine on the road.
Bet Carolina -3
Oakland at Chicago +3 – The Raiders are favored on the road? What year is this, 1983? The Bears are an abysmal team selling players and cutting salary with reckless abandon, which definitely explains this number. That and the fact that the 2-1 Raiders are actually playing sound on both sides of the ball. Derek Carr and rookie Amari Cooper are quickly becoming a deadly QB-WR combination, and running back Latavius Murray is gaining solid yards on the ground. However, the Silver and Black defense ranks dead last in total yards allowed. Can Jimmy Clausen take advantage if Alshon Jeffery doesn’t suit up? Hard to trust the Raiders in this spot, but they are clearly the better team. Oakland is 1-11 SU in its last dozen road trips. Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five at Solider Field.
Bet Oakland -3
Green Bay at San Francisco +9.5 – The Packers are cruising at 3-0. The Niners are out of gas in the middle of the highway at 1-2. San Fran yielded 90 points to Pittsburgh and Arizona in back-to-back road blowouts. The Packers are getting MVP worthy play from Aaron Rodgers, who is wheeling and dealing despite injuries to the skill positions. James Jones couldn’t find a job a month ago, but reunited with Rodgers, he has four touchdowns on just 12 receptions. Green Bay’s defense is banged up, and couldn’t get off the field in the 4th quarter on Monday night. Niners are 1-8 ATS in their last nine. Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last seven overall. A slight letdown from the Pack is possible, but the 49ers are a troubled bunch.
Bet Green Bay -9.5
Dallas at New Orleans -4 – Drew Brees has a shot to start after sitting out last week with a shoulder ailment. Dallas is sticking with Brandon Weeden under center, although a loss here might change head coach Jerry Jones’ Jason Garrett’s mind. Obviously the Cowboys are beat up, and they did just execute a textbook collapse versus Atlanta. But New Orleans has looked like garbage for three games, and are a lousy 0-5 ATS in its last five at home. On the flipside, Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last five road tilts. Backing the Saints doesn’t feel right.
Bet Dallas +4
