Week 6 NFL Picks
Home chalk went a woeful 3-6-1 ATS in Week 5. That included straight up losses by the Chiefs, Ravens, and Chargers, all of whom were giving at least 4 points. The byes continue for Week 6, so no Dallas, Tampa, St. Louis, and Oakland, which also means no Brandon Weeden, Jameis Winston, Nick Foles, and Derek Carr, a fearsome foursome of quarterbacking that have accounted for 22 total turnovers through five weeks. Those who enjoy incompetent, sloppy football will be disappointed by their absence. Have no fear though, the likes of E.J. Manuel, Mike Vick, and the dynamic duo in Houston will all be in action. Here’s a look at some of the weekend’s more intriguing matchups.
Kansas City at Minnesota -3.5 – As if things weren’t going bad enough for the 1-4 Chiefs, the loss of running back Jamaal Charles to a torn ACL pretty much dooms their season. Now they travel to Minnesota to face the well-rested Vikings, who rank 6th in scoring defense, and 2nd in rushing offense. Adrian Peterson looks like, well, Adrian Peterson: fast and ferocious. Teddy Bridgewater is efficient, but nothing special. If Justin Houston and Tamba Hali can get in his face, he’s prone to make mistakes. There’s no doubt KC is desperate, but also deflated after losing their best player. Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven at home.
Bet Minnesota -3.5
Arizona at Pittsburgh +3.5 – The Bruce Arians revenge game! Not really. Especially since Ben Roethlisberger won’t suit up due to his bum knee. The Cardinals are outscoring opponents by 100 points. That’s right, 100. Pittsburgh found a way to steal a game last Monday night thanks to a touchdown bomb by Vick and a gutsy walk-off call by Mike Tomlin. The Steeler D was supposed to be awful, but they are actually respectable, ranking 7th in points allowed. That said, their injury-riddled secondary is very vulnerable. Carson Palmer is posting MVPesque numbers and has the weapons to exploit Pitt’s biggest weakness. Steelers are 7-1-2 ATS in their last ten overall. Zona is 4-1 ATS in its last five road tilts.
Bet Arizona -3.5
Miami at Tennessee -1 – The turmoil in Miami involving Joe Philbin’s firing and Ryan Tannehill’s practice squad relationship issues is resolved after the much-needed bye week. Tough guy interim head coach Dan Campbell is here to save the day with his no nonsense attitude and dedication to fundamentals. At least that’s the narrative the Fish franchise is pushing. It could be that the Dolphins are just plain terrible. Meanwhile, the Titans boast the top-ranked pass defense and the 8th best scoring offense. Miami is 1-8 ATS in their last nine overall. Titans are 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 at home. Let’s give Campbell the benefit of the doubt in this one.
Bet Miami +1
Carolina at Seattle -7 – The two-time defending NFC champs are struggling. The offensive line is straight garbage, and the Jimmy Graham experiment isn’t going well. The defense remains stout, although not so much against the Bengals a week ago. The undefeated Panthers are getting unexpected contributions from guys like Ted Ginn. Yes, Ted Ginn. And Cam Newton is indeed wearing his Super Man cape well. ‘Cats are 4th in points allowed. ‘Hawks are 9th in points allowed. Get ready for a good ol’ kicker duel! Carolina is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven overall. Seattle is 1-5-2 ATS in its last eight. ‘Hawks win, ‘Cats cover.
Bet Carolina +7
