NHL Hockey Betting: Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins

NHL Hockey Betting:  Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins

So here we are at Game 7 between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Pittsburgh Penguins. The winner will advance to the Stanley Cup Finals. If the Lightning get the win they’ll be Eastern Conference champions for the second year in a row. The Lightning have been underrated all season and they’re definitely underrated in this series. That’s the only thing to explain why the Penguins have been favored in every game yet here we are tied at 3-3.

Since the Penguins went back to Matt Murray in Game Six that suggests that he’ll get the start here. Murray was yanked in Game Four after a poor performance and replaced by Marc-Andre Fleury who then started Game Five. Fleury was less than impressive and Mike Sullivan went back to Murray for Game Six. Murray had a solid night stopping 28 of 30 shots. As far as Tampa Bay’s goaltending situation you can forget about Ben Bishop coming back at least for this series. He’s been downgraded to ‘doubtful’ for this game and Kristers Gudlevskis will be backing up Andrei Vasilevskiy. Vasilevskiy has been excellent at times in this series but really struggled in Game Six.

Game Seven is a tough challenge for any team and any type of situational breakdown only tells part of the story. In general, it’s a good idea to play a team coming off a bad playoff loss and Tampa Bay could be especially effective in that role. They’re 17-7 +7.3 units after a loss by two or more goals. They’re 17-9 +6.2 units after allow four or more goals.

All throughout this series we’ve talked about the pricing. There is no way to justify making the Penguins a 2-1 favorite even on home ice. I knew that Pittsburgh was a ‘public’ team but I had no idea they were *this* much of a public team. I rated this series a toss up before it started and have been betting the Lightning at plus money every chance I get. In their last 15 meetings Pittsburgh has won 8 and Tampa Bay has won 7. At Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh has won 4 and Tampa Bay has won 3. And, of course, we’re 3-3 in this series. We’ll take the value on the Lightning once again.