Soccer Betting for May 15, 2014

Soccer Betting for May 15, 2014

Interesting soccer betting opportunity in Germany on Wednesday as Hamburger and Greuther Furth compete in a one game elevation/relegation playoff. The winner will play in the top level Bundesliga next year with the loser being relegated to the second tier 2.Bundesliga.

GREUTHER FURTH AT HAMBURGER:

This is the sort of game that you’ll never see in US sports. Relegation and elevation is standard practice in European soccer and it would be great for US sports but there’s just too much money involved for it to ever happen here. Anyway, here’s the situation in this game–the top 2 teams in the second tier 2.Bundesliga (Koln, Paderborn) automatically advance to the top tier Bundesliga. The third place team–that’s Greuther Furth–have to play their way in. Meanwhile the bottom two teams in the top level Bundesliga (TSV Eintracht Braunschweig, Nurnburg) are automatically relegated down to 2.Bundesliga while the third lowest team–that’s Hamburger–have to face the #3 2.Bundesliga team (Greuther Furth) to avoid relegation.

So that’s the matchup. Hamburger does get to host this game which is very important as they try to avoid relegation for the first time in team history. They won only twice away from home in Bundesliga play this year and haven’t earned a point on the road in 2014. The problem with Hamburger is that their defense is awful–they allowed 75 goals which is the worst in the entire Bundesliga.

Greuther Furth is a tough team to figure. They were very competitive in 2.Bundesliga play this season after being relegated from the top circuit after the 2012-2013 season. In that year they were not only the worst team in the top tier league they were the worst team *ever* in Bundesliga play going 4-9-21 for 21 points which left them 9 points behind the second worst team in the league.

So how much qualitative difference is there between the Bundesliga and 2.Bundesliga? A lot–most casual soccer fans don’t realize how good German soccer is. In fact, many soccer experts consider the Bundesliga the best soccer league in the world top to bottom led by powerhouse Bayern Munich who has played in 3 of the last 4 Champions League finals winning in 2013. Hamburger’s porous defense concerns us, but we expect them to play a very tight, conservative game. These teams played each other in a German DFB Cup game in September with Hamburger winning 1-0. That’s the scoreline we expect to see here as Hamburg salvages their season by staying at the top level of German soccer.

BET HAMBURGER -114 OVER GREUTHER FURTH
BET HAMBURGER/GREUTHER FURTH UNDER 2.5 +108