College Football Betting: Baylor at Rice

College Football Betting:  Baylor at Rice

Friday night college football betting in an ‘all Texas’ battle between Baylor and Rice. Baylor is 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS after a pair of victories against completely overmatched opponents. They beat FCS Northwestern State (4-7 in 2015) and SMU (2-10 in 2015). Now another team with a losing record in 2015 and one that looks like they’re on the track to another in 2016. Maybe the Rice Owls *are* that bad. They’re 0-2 SU/ATS and have lost their first two games by a combined score of 77-28. Western Kentucky passed for 552 yards against them in their first game and Army rushed for 348 yards against them in their second game.

Big pointspread mismatches like this come down to a few fundamental questions. Is there a reason that the favorite would want to drop a beating on their opponent? Even if they don’t want to beat them badly is there anything the opponent can do to stop it? Can the underdog ‘trade points’ with them or do they have a good enough defense to at least keep the score reasonable?

In this game, there’s not much to suggest that Rice has the ability to stop anything that Baylor wants to do. The Owl defense looked awful in their first two games and now they face the most potent offense yet (#1 in PPG scored in 2015) and one that has no problem dropping a beating on weaker teams. They’ve scored a total of 95 points in their first two games and with a relatively weak schedule down the stretch it’s obvious that they’ll need to drop some numbers to move up in the polls (currently #21 in the AP Top 25 and #19 in the Coach’s Poll). Last year Baylor ripped Rice for nearly 800 yards of total offense in a 70-17 win. The Bears have won and covered 7 of the last 8 in the series though only one game (2015) took place in the last three years. The Bears have 18 50+ point games since 2013, the best in the country.

The only thing that gives Rice a bit of hope to stay inside this number is focus. The Bears have one of their bigger games of the year on 9/24 at home against Oklahoma State. Not much to hang your hat on if you’re a Rice bettor.