College Football Betting: Central Michigan at Toledo
The MAC is an interesting conference and from a sports betting perspective people either love it or hate it. There are handicappers that specialize in the MAC and do very well. On the other hand, there are plenty of people who despise the conference for a variety of reasons. At one point during the 1970’s and early 1980’s Las Vegas sportsbooks were very leery of the MAC with some refusing to take action on it altogether due to (admittedly unsubstantiated) rumors that things were not on the ‘up and up’. Football fans who like solid defense have a perception that it is a conference with no defense/all offense. There’s some truth to that but you learn in ‘Football Handicapping 101’ that few situations are as strong as two good offenses/weak defenses in a matchup where one team is getting double digits.
Toldeo’s defense isn’t anywhere near as good as their statistics suggest. If you look at their total team defense they’re ranked a reasonable #37. That will happen when you play a schedule like they do including games against Arkansas State, Maine, Fresno State and Eastern Michigan. But take a look at their defense against the two competent teams on their schedule. They allowed 586 total yards including 338 yards rushing at BYU and allowed 502 total yards including 335 yards passing against Bowling Green last week. After covering the spread in their first three games with relative ease they stayed inside the number by a single point at BYU and haven’t covered their last two. Last week against Bowling Green they won by 7 as -31.5 favorites. That suggests a team that is overvalued relative to the rest of their conference.
Toledo has had little trouble with Central Michigan of late and particularly at home where they’re on an 8-3 SU/6-3-2 ATS run. This might be the best chance the Chippewas have had in years to get a win in a series where they’ve lost six straight. Central Michigan has been an excellent team away from home (11-4 ATS L3 years) and have covered six straight as a road dog. Road team has a very capable balanced offense and don’t see the Rockets shutting them down. Toledo just overvalued at this point and particularly at home–they’re 3-7 ATS in their last 10 MAC home games.
BET CENTRAL MICHIGAN +10.5 OVER TOLEDO
