College Football Betting: Kansas at Texas Tech

College Football Betting:  Kansas at Texas Tech

Texas Tech is hoping to improve upon last year’s 7-6 record which culminated in a 56-27 bowl rout at the hands of LSU. They’re off to a reasonably good start with 2 wins in their first two games and should be able to improve to 4-2 as they face the lowly Kansas Jayhawks on their home field. The Red Raiders have the #2 scoring offense in the country (61.0 PPG) behind Louisville. They shouldn’t have much trouble overwhelming the pitiful Jayhawks–in contrast to their illustrious basketball program the Kansas football team is one of the biggest dumpster fires in college football. They’ll enter this game on a brutal 4-23 SU run coming off a 0-12 season. Only two of their four wins in that stretch came against FBS opposition.

The concern in this game isn’t Texas Tech’s ability to score points–it’s in their ability to keep their opponent from scoring points. The Red Raiders have the #124 ranked scoring defense in college football allowing 43.3 PPG. That means that only four teams have a worse defense and the Red Raiders have played a game against FCS opponent Stephen F. Austin. In two games against FBS level opposition they’ve allowed 56.5 PPG. That’s a big concern when you’re laying almost -30 points with a favorite. The Red Raiders were -33 favorites in Lawrence last year and came nowhere near covering in a 30-20 win. They won/covered in their last matchup at home but they were just -11.5 favorites in that game.

The problem is that Kansas is just a tough team to get involved with. It is worth noting that they’ve got a significantly stouter defense than Texas Tech (#80 28.7 PPG). Then again, they’ve done a bad job taking care of the football in 2016 (11 turnovers in 3 games) and turning the ball over against Texas Tech is suicidal. It’s not like the Jayhawks have been a scrappy underdog–they’re 4-23 SU/8-18 ATS over the last 3 years including 1-22 SU/6-16 ATS as an underdog. They’re also 1-17 SU/6-12 ATS against conference foes. The Red Raiders are on a 9-4 ATS run on their home field. These numbers don’t make much of a case for the Jayhawks but the Red Raiders have a bigger challenge on deck (next week at Kansas State) and just can’t be trusted in that price range with such a miserable defense.