College Football Betting: Miami at Virginia Tech

College Football Betting:  Miami at Virginia Tech

Very interesting Thursday Night ACC matchup on deck as the Miami Hurricanes head North to take on Virginia Tech. Miami started the season with four straight double digit wins both straight up and against the pointspread. They’ve since lost two straight, dropping a narrow 1 point decision at Florida State and losing 20-13 at North Carolina last week. Of significant concern is their drop in offensive performance in those losses. In their three wins against FBS opposition they’ve averaged 39.3 PPG. In their two losses they’re averaging only 16 PPG. The defense is still playing well and has allowed only 16.2 PPG in five games against top level opposition. Virginia Tech is also 4-2 SU on the season (3-3 ATS). They lost big at Syracuse last week dropping a 31-17 decision as -22.5 favorites (failing to cover the spread by 36.5 points if you’re scoring at home). The Hokies defense hasn’t looked great this season but they were awful last week allowing 561 yards to the uptempo Orange.

For a program that has enjoyed so much success, Miami doesn’t have an inspiring record bouncing back after losses. Off a loss in conference they’re just 4-5 ATS over the last three years. Off two or more consecutive losses they’re just 1-2 SU/ATS over the last three years and a lackluster 11-13 ATS dating back to 1992. Oddly enough, Mark Richt is in his first year at Miami after a long run as the head coach at the University of Georgia and he’s also been a lackluster team coming off of losses. The ‘canes haven’t been a good underdog either (3-8 SU/4-7 ATS L3) but Virginia Tech has been a mediocre favorite (13-9 SU/9-13 ATS).

Virginia Tech has won and covered 7 of the last 11 meetings on their home field but the last two games have been all Miami. Miami won at home 30-20 as -3 favorites last year and 30-6 as -2.5 favorites in 2014. Looking at that there’s reason to think that Tech is overvalued here. Miami returned most of their offensive starters and they’re playing well on defense. Hokies defense looked good until last week and if their weakness is ‘speed’ they could be in for it again here. At any rate, with two evenly matched teams that both need a win we’ll take the points.