College Football Betting: South Florida at Florida State

Week 2 of college football season is upon us and at the top of Saturday’s card is another ‘paycheck game’ between powerhouse Florida State and in-state ‘rival’ South Florida. To give you some idea of the extent of this mismatch just consider the team’s straight up records over the past three years. Florida State enters the matchup with on a SU run of 28-1 while South Florida’s straight up record in recent seasons is 7-18. Of course with the pointspread involved even a horrible mismatch can become interesting.

Both teams played overmatched opponents last week and won easily. The Bulls had no problem with Florida A&M winning 51-3 and covering as -28 point favorites. The game has been seen as a hopeful sign by South Florida boosters that the team now has something that approximates a potent offense. That’s been the team’s undoing in recent years and the extent of their troubles can be seen in the total posted against Florida A&M–39. Of course putting points on the board against Florida State will be a completely different matter. The Seminoles had no trouble against Texas State as their new quarterback–Notre Dame transfer Everett Golson–unloaded for 300+ yards passing and 4 TD passes. For his effort, Golson won the ACC’s ‘Player of the Week’ award.

The easy response is to lay the points with Florida State who are clearly the superior team. We’re not convinced. For one thing, the Seminoles have a much bigger game on deck next Friday night as they play their ACC opener at Boston College. Florida State could be in serious lookahead mode and that problem could be compounded as they face a team using a new up-tempo offensive set. South Florida has been a profitable traveler in recent years with a 7-3 ATS road record despite going just 3-7 SU. Things are looking up under third year head coach Willie Taggert and if anything there’s reason to expect that the Bulls could be an even better road investment. Taggert’s teams are now on a 17-3 ATS run as a road underdog.

Our thinking is to take as many points as possible and look for South Florida to at least stay within shouting distance.

BET SOUTH FLORIDA +28′ OVER FLORIDA STATE