American League Championship Series for October 13, 2014

NOTE: THIS GAME HAS BEEN RAINED OUT AND WILL BE PLAYED TOMORROW (TUESDAY 10/13) AT 5:05 PM PACIFIC

The American League Championship series shifts to Kansas City with the hometown Royals up 2-0 over the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles had been cruising until this series but the Royals have been playing exceptional baseball having won 7 straight postseason games. Clearly down 0-2 this becomes a ‘must win’ game for Baltimore while a win by KC would all but cinch the series for them.

Baltimore will start left hander Wei-Yin Chen who is coming off a tough outing against Detroit. The Tigers chased Chen after just 3 2/3 innings tagging him for 7 hits, 5 earned runs including two home runs. Chen was solid though not spectacular during the regular season–YTD he’s got a ERA of 3.71 and the Orioles have won 20 of his 32 starts. On the road his ERA is better (3.33) but Baltimore split his 16 away assignments.

Kansas City will counter with Jeremy Guthrie who hasn’t pitched since September 26 but had been in spectacular form. In his last three starts Guthrie pitched 20 1/3 innings allowing 1 earned run for a 0.44 ERA and a 0.787 WHIP. His YTD numbers aren’t quite as impressive–overall this season Guthrie has a 4.09 ERA with Kansas City winning 19 of his 32 starts. At home, Guthrie has a 4.16 ERA and the Royals have a 9-7 record when he takes the mound.

Kansas City hits left handed pitching well and is ‘in the black’ against them this season (26-21 +3.6 units) but Baltimore has destroyed right handed pitching. The Orioles are 76-49 +31.1 units against righthanders and have also put up +22.3 units of profit away from ‘Charm City’. Of course that didn’t help them in the first two games which were both against right handed starters.

One of the biggest lessons you’ll learn in sports betting is that teams in ‘must win’ situations are seldom good bets. To the contrary, more often than not you’re well advised to go against teams in ‘must win’ spots. The line is clearly reflecting Baltimore’s situation meaning that the home team is undervalued here. The Royals are tough to buck at this point–they’re playing such good baseball and that isn’t likely to change just because the series has shifted from Baltimore to Kansas City. The Royals are the value side here and they’re also the better team in better form.

BET KANSAS CITY ROYALS +100 OVER BALTIMORE ORIOLES