MLB Baseball Betting: Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets

MLB Baseball Betting:  Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets

The New York Mets have been tough at home all season long and are using that home field edge to pull back into the race for the top spot in the NL East. New York has cut Washington’s advantage atop the division down to 2 games and will have a chance to do some more damage on Saturday as they play the Arizona Diamondbacks in the second game of a three game weekend series. The Diamondbacks aren’t an ‘easy out’. They’re currently one game under .500 and have won 7 of their last 11 games. They’re trying to run down San Francisco for the second spot in the NL West. The Mets won 4 of their last 6 on a West Coast road trip and now they’re back at home where they’ve gone 30-14 +13.6 units this season.

Arizona will start veteran lefthander Pat Corbin who looked decent in his last start where he allowed 8 hits and 2 runs over 5 innings against the Colorado Rockies on July 4. That was his first start since late 2013–he missed the entire 2014 season following Tommy John surgery. So far so good in his return to baseball and hopes are high that he regain his pre-surgery form. The Mets will counter with Matt Harvey who has been decent this year (3.19 ERA, 3.17 ERA at home) but New York has been significantly more successful in his home starts. Overall, the Mets have won 9 of his 16 assignments but at home they’ve won 6 of 8. The Mets have lost two of his last three starts though Harvey has pitched well allowing just 5 total earned runs in those games.

This matchup is much closer than the price on the game would suggest. Arizona is a team on the upswing and they’ve been very competitive against the Mets in recent years splitting 8 games played at Citi Field. The Mets have not been particularly effective against lefthanders this season. They’re 8-7 +2.1 units against southpaws but average only 3.3 runs per game–not that they’re an offensive powerhouse in any setting. We’ll look for Corbin to continue to improve and take the price on the visitors. The Mets do have an excellent home record but that’s likely why they’re overvalued in this setting.