MLB Baseball Betting: Atlanta Braves at New York Mets

MLB Baseball Betting:  Atlanta Braves at New York Mets

In most seasons, this late September series between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets would mean something. This year it means something to only one team. The Mets are in control in the NL East and are looking to clinch. They’ve got a 6.5 game lead over the second place Washington Nationals who are playing good baseball at at the moment (7-3 L10) but running out of time. The Mets are keeping pace so far (6-4 L10) but can’t start to ‘phone it in’ this early. Atlanta, meanwhile, has pulled themselves four games clear of the Philadelphia Phillies and the ignominious reality of the worst record in Major League Baseball. The Braves aren’t exactly playing well (4-6 L10) but they’re at least playing better than Philadelphia.

The Braves’ big problem this year–other than a lack of offense, poor pitching and careless defense–has been pitiful play on the road. Away from Turner Field they’re 23-53 -23 units. To put this in perspective, only one other team in baseball has fewer than 28 road wins (the aforementioned Phillies). They’re no great shakes at home either with a record under .500 at Turner Field (37-38) but their record away from home is downright deplorable given the fact that baseball may have the most negligible home field advantage of any sport.

New York will start youngster Logan Verrett for tonight’s game–he’s looked very good in limited action and that bodes well for the future. The Mets are currently the #4 team ERA in baseball and it looks like they’ve got some weapons in the armory for years to come. Verrett has only two starts but both were Mets’ wins. He’s got a starting ERA of 1.38 with 2 earned runs, 7 hits and 11 strikeouts in 13 innings of work. He’ll be opposed by the Braves’ Matt Wisler who has been hit hard. Atlanta has won only 2 of his 9 starts on the road as well as his last three starts. He’s been pounded in his recent outings with an 8.56 ERA in his last three games.

Tough to lay this price but Verrett is still an undervalued pitcher and the Braves are a mess. New York has won 6 of 7 against Atlanta at home this season.