MLB Baseball Betting: Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies

MLB Baseball Betting:  Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies

The All Star Break is over and so is the slowest sports betting week of the year. Major League Baseball is back to work and in this preview we’ll take a look at a National League game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins. These are the two bottom teams in the NL East but that’s where similarities between the two end. The Marlins might not be a good team at 13 games under .500 and 11 games off the pace in their division but the Phillies are a doormat. Miami has a 10 game lead over the last place Phillies. Considering that Miami is tied for the second worst record in baseball the fact that the Phillies are nowhere near catching them should underscore just how bad Philadelphia really is.

It shouldn’t be as easy as blindly going against the Phillies but until further notice it looks like it is. Blindly betting against the Phillies has produced +24 units of profit this season. The Marlins have lost money in most situations this year and are a none too impressive -11.8 units in the hole for the season. That being said, it’s nearly impossible to find a positive expectation situation for the lowly Phils who have posted double digit losses in most situational spots.

Philadelphia will start lefthander Adam Morgan tonight and he showed some promise in his only other home start of the season, shutting down St. Louis. Of course the Cards are famously weak against left handers. Miami will respond with Jose Fernandez who has looked good in his first two starts after missing nearly a year. Miami is 9-11 -0.5 units against lefthanders this season though they’ve hit southpaws fairly well averaging 4.1 runs per game and hitting .275–both higher than their overall and road offensive numbers.

At some point, the prices against Philadelphia will get inflated to the point that the Phillies will become a decent value. At the very least, they’ll be high enough that we can’t advise blindly betting against them. For now, however, there’s no reason to think that Philadelphia’s freefall won’t continue. They’re in a very competitive division and significantly worse than even the other bottomfeeders in Major League Baseball.