MLB Baseball Betting: Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies

MLB Baseball Betting:  Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies

Not exactly ‘must see TV’ in this game between the two worst teams in baseball. The Philadelphia Phillies currently have the dubious distinction of having the worst record in the Major Leagues and are coming off a weekend series where they lost two of three games to the Washington Nationals. The Brewers are 29-48 but have won four of their last six games thanks to a pair of 2-1 series wins over the New York Mets and Minnesota Twins. Both teams have won 5 of their last 10 games overall.

Here’s something interesting about the Milwaukee Brewers–they’re equally bad on the road as at home. Most teams including bad teams play better at home than away from home. The Phillies, for example, are 18-21 at home but 9-29 away from home. The Brewers are 15-26 at home and 14-22 on the road. That may not sound significant but it suggests a team that puts up a fairly consistent effort, albeit a losing one. That still doesn’t justify the price on this game.

The pitching matchup looks like a toss up with the Phillies Sean O’Sullivan against Milwaukee’s Jimmy Nelson. Both pitchers have been mediocre at best and there’s not much reason to believe that one of them is capable of a dominant performance in this spot. The Brewers have won five of the last six against the Phillies in Philadelphia though none of the games were in the past two seasons. In fact, no matter how thoroughly we dig through the statistical matchup for this game we come to the conclusion that it’s a coin flip. Two bad teams, neither of which do anything particularly well. Milwaukee may have more ‘upside potential’ than Philadelphia but there’s no reason to think that their underachieving ways won’t continue going forward.

In a coinflip of any type the ‘theoretical odds’ are 50/50. That’s why in a coinflip game you take the ‘plus money’ price. We’re getting a nice price on the Phillies. Hard to figure how the Brewers are favored on the road given their horrid play this year. The 4 of 6 run is nice and all but considering it came against bad teams it means little.