MLB Baseball Betting: New York Mets at Washington Nationals

Very important National League East series starts tonight at Nationals Park as the hometown Washington Nationals host the New York Mets. To understand the storyline for this game you just need to look at the standings–the Nationals are currently in first place in the NL East with the Mets just two games behind. The Nationals have been ‘treading water’ since the All Star Break and are just 5-5 in their last 10 games. The Mets, meanwhile, have bounced back from a late June/early July slump and have won 7 of their last 10 games.

Righthander Matt Harvey will get the start for the Mets. He’s been solid this season though far from dominating. Overall, he’s got a 3.15 ERA, a 3.22 road ERA and a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts. While there’s something to be said for this kind of consistency, the Mets would like him to get those numbers down to under 3. New York has a 10-7 record in his starts this season but just 3-5 when he starts away from home.

Washington will counter with lefthander Gio Gonzalez who is back in exceptional form after a lackluster start to the season. Overall, Gonzalez has a 3.99 ERA but he’s been even better at home where he’s posted a 2.44 ERA. Overall, the Nationals are 10-6 when Gonzalez takes the mound but they’ve won six of his seven home starts. He’s been very good in his most recent starts–in his last three assignments he’s allowed a total of two earned runs for a 0.90 ERA. The Nationals won two of those three games.

The Mets have fared well against southpaws this year (10-7 +4.4 units) but their offense has been somewhere between bad and mediocre. This is especially true on the road where they’re averaging 2.9 runs per game. With this kind of performance it’s not surprising that they’ve lost a ton of games–and a ton of money–away from home: New York is 16-30 -12 units on the road this year. Based on that metric alone, the Nationals look like the value side here and that’s especially true given the excellent recent form of Gonzalez. The Nationals have a better offense, the more formful pitcher and are facing a miserable road team.

BET WASHINGTON NATIONALS -125 OVER NEW YORK METS