MLB Baseball Betting: New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

MLB Baseball Betting:  New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays are trying to nail down the AL East title and have the perfect opportunity to put the nails in the coffin of the second place New York Yankees as a three game series begins at the Rogers Centre on Monday Night. The Blue Jays hold a 2.5 game lead over the Yankees. They’re just two games behind the Kansas City Royals for the best record in the American League but in the short term they’re more concerned about holding off the Yankees. The Yankees took two of three from the New York Mets over the weekend while Toronto lost two of three at Boston.

Toronto has a big edge in starting pitching for tonight’s matchup. They’ll start their ace, lefthander David Price who has been excellent all season long and especially so during the month of September. For the season, Price has a 2.51 ERA and the Blue Jays have won 22 of his 30 starts. In his last three starts–all Blue Jays victories–Price has allowed only 4 earned runs while striking out 24 in his last 19 innings of work.

The Yankees will counter with Adam Warren who has put up decent–though not great–numbers in his 15 starts this season. Overall, Warren has a 3.63 ERA with the Yankees winning 9 of his 15 starts. On the road, however, his ERA balloons to 4.68 with the Yankees losing 5 of his 9 away assignments. He’s got a 3.06 ERA in his last three starts but the Yankees lost two of those games.

For the season, the Blue Jays have a decided edge in head to head play winning 11 of 16 meetings against the Yankees but the two teams have split six games at the Rogers Centre. Price personally has been solid against the Yankees this year with 5 ER allowed and 20 strikeouts in 19 1/3 innings of work over three games. Toronto won two of those games. We think the Jays are the better team but the price on this game is outlandish given the standings and the stakes of this contest. There’s not really a way to justify the Yankees as +215 underdogs here. They’re a better team than that and Warren is a better starting pitcher. We’ll take the Yankees as high priced dogs.