MLB Betting Picks: Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals

National League Central rivals conclude a three game series on Wednesday as the Cincinnati Reds face the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. These teams are expected to contend for the NL Central title throughout the summer and have split the first two games of this set. In fact, unless the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates turn things around it could be a two team race in the division.

Currently the Reds hold a 1 game lead over the Cards in the divisional race though at this early stage of the season that’s not highly significant. The Reds are 5-3 on the year while the Cards are 4-4. Cincinnati won the first game of this series in decisive fashion with St. Louis returning the favor yesterday–at least that’s the way it looks ‘on paper’. In reality both games were closely contested until late innings when the game got away from the loser.

This matchup will feature arguably the most underrated pitcher in the National League, Homer Bailey, getting the start for Cincinnati. Bailey was exceptional in his first start of the year pitching six innings of two hit ball in a lopsided 15-0 win over the Washington Nationals. Cards’ starter Jake Westbrook was the tough luck loser in his first start of the year going 6 2/3 innings and allowing 0 earned runs on six hits against the San Francisco Giants. The Giants would win 1-0 and Westbrook would be saddled with the loss.

In recent years this has been a very tightly contested series–Cincinnati has won 17 of the last 31 head to head meetings for a +2.6 unit profit overall. The Cards have the edge at Busch Stadium winning 10 of the last 17 matchups at home but that has produced only 1/2 unit of profit. As we noted in our writeup on the first game of this series, Cincinnati was a strong moneymaker on the road in 2012 finishing up +10.5 units. St. Louis lost a ton of money against right handers last year dropping -15.9 units. We like this Reds team a lot and espeically like Homer Bailey on the mound. Look for the Reds to take the rubber match of the series and extend their lead in the division.

BET CINCINNATI REDS (BAILEY) -105 OVER ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (WESTBROOK)