NBA Basketball Betting: Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers

NBA Basketball Betting:  Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers

The most interminable NBA Finals series in history drags on to Game Six. The NBA ‘bookers’ apparently thought that the Cleveland LeBrons deserved more than one win in the series so the Cavs won Game Five and we go back to Cleveland. Game Seven would be on the Warriors’ home court on Sunday, June 19 but obviously the Cavaliers have to defend their home court for that to happen.

I talk a lot about the importance of ignoring the ‘narrative’ generated in the mainstream sports media about betting propositions. You can see in this series alone what I mean. The mainstream media has change their tune on this series at least four times now:

1) The Warriors are the best team ever and the LeBrons are no match. (Games 1 and 2)

2) The Cavs are back! We’ve got a new series! (Game 3)

3) No we don’t. The Warriors were in a natural flat spot. This series is over (Game 4)

4) The Cavs are back! LeBron and Kyrie are the next great power duo! We’ve got a new series! (Game 5)

This series is worse than the average series for one reason–ESPN has a promotional relationship with the NBA. It’s in the best interest of both parties for ESPN to report the ‘news’ on the NBA Finals in such a way that it makes people want to tune in. That’s why their prevailing narrative has changed so often–they’re making tactical adjustments based on what they think will drive viewership. And since much of the mainstream sports media is lazy they essentially copy ESPN’s ‘take’ and a normative opinion made for promotional purposes takes on a life of its own.

Reality check time–the Cavs haven’t dealt with success very well this season. After a win of 10 or more points they’re 29-13 SU/18-24 ATS. They’re good enough that they won twenty nine regular season and playoffs games by double digits. They also lost the following game outright 13 times. Golden State, meanwhile are monsters coming off a double digit loss to the tune of 8-1 SU/6-3 ATS. They’re 14-1 SU/12-3 ATS in revenge spots and 12-1 SU/9-3 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. Cleveland established a maddening tendency for exerting maximum effort selectively and it’s carried over into the playoffs. That will be their undoing on Thursday night.