NBA Basketball Betting: Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors

NBA Basketball Betting:  Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors

Game 7 of the NBA Western COnference Finals is set to go on Monday night at Golden State. The defending NBA champion Warriors can improbably come back from a 3-1 series deficit to win the series and advance to the NBA Finals for the second conseuctive year. The Oklahoma City Thunder have to be shellshocked–they thought this series was all but one but instead they’re on the road playing for their season.

The home team in the NBA has a very formidable record in Game 7 situations. In other sports, its much more even. All time NBA Game 7 record–the home team is a winner in 79.6% of all deciding games. In the Confeence Finals the home team wins Game 76.9% of the time. That record has to be disconcerting to the Thunder. Even more disconcerting is the fact that OKC will end up going down as one of this historically embarassing series losses in NBA history should they fail to win this game. Teams up 3-1 in the conference finals are 50-3 (94.3%) all time. Teams who go up 3-1 when the opponent has home court advantage are just over 90% winners in the conference finals (20-2 all time).

Basketball is a game of adjustments are the Golden State Warriors may have made all of the adjustments they need to win this series. Steph Curry is back and that’s a huge part of the comeback. The Thunder got lucky early in the series and went up with the league MVP out. In addition to his play his on court swagger is contageous and has had a significant impact on his teammates.

Of course we have to deal with the pointspread. It’s possible for the Warriors to win the game and not cover. Very much possible, as a matter of fact. Given the trouble that Golden State has had with OKC overconfidence is a risk–they’re likely aware of the statistical information posted above. The Warriors were great this year as a home favorite in this price zone (6.5 to 9 points) going 8-3 ATS. Over the last threes seasons they’re 23-10 in this ATS spot. The Thunder won’t go quietly but everything points to Golden State statistically.