NBA Betting Preview for October 29, 2014

NBA Betting Preview for October 29, 2014

NBA basketball season is underway and of all the major sports there may be more value in early season pro basketball betting than in the early stages of any other sport. I have no real explanation for this but there are a few things you’ll see in the first couple of months of NBA basketball that you can use to cash some tickets. Two of them actually work in tandem–good teams from last year are overpriced and bad teams from last year are underpriced. The betting public is slow to change their opinion about teams and that can be a great opportunity for bettors. Perfect example–last year’s Charlotte Bobcats (who are now back to being called the ‘Hornets’ for reasons I’m not exactly clear on). They were a doormat in the 2012-2013 season but started to put it together last year. Not surprisingly, they were also a great pointspread team. Another factor is teams that have gone through major personnel moves may take some time to ‘gel’ or sometimes things will ‘click’ immediately. I’m not talking about big free agent signings but moves involving players that don’t get the front page mention on ESPN.com.

Here’s a couple of plays on Wednesday’s NBA card:

MILWAUKEE BUCKS AT CHARLOTTE BOBCATS HORNETS:

The Bucks were a bad team last year and there’s really no way of predicting what will happen to this freak show of a team this season. They’ve brought in Jason Kidd as head coach and I’m not sold on his abilities running a NBA basketball team. The acquisition of Jabari Parker brought the team a proven scoring threat which they sorely lacked last year. The Hornets should be a good team again but now they’re in a completely different role and look to be a bit overpriced to start the season.

BET MILWAUKEE BUCKS +8 OVER CHARLOTTE HORNETS

WASHINGTON WIZARDS AT MIAMI HEAT:

I used this Washington team a lot last year and expect them to be even better this year. But they look to be overpriced at this point. Washington will be without Bradley Beal for up to two months and he’s a guy that makes a difference when he’s in the lineup. He’s a scoring threat that teams have to consider which opens up space for John Wall and Nene Hilario. The Wizards will be playing with a very thin bench here–four players including Nene Hilario and DeJuan Blair are serving a one game suspension and Glen Rice, Jr. is questionable. Miami lost some guy named LeBron James but still have D-Wade and Bosh along with newcomer Luol Deng. The pointspread math just doesn’t work here–it suggests that the Wizards minus a ton of players due to injury or suspension would be a ‘pick’em’ against the new-look Heat on a neutral court. I don’t buy that.

BET MIAMI HEAT -4 OVER WASHINGTON WIZARDS