NFL Betting: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

At first glace Sunday’s contest between the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins might not look like much but does have some compelling playoff storylines. The Patriots all of a sudden have control over their own postseason destiny by virtue of San Diego’s upset win over the Denver Broncos on Thursday night. Miami has quietly won four of their last six games going 5-1 against the spread and are still alive for a wildcard spot.

The New England Patriots are a tough team to figure and have been all season long. The Boston area sports media spent the first few weeks of the 2014 season prattling about ‘what is wrong with the Patriots’. Given the dire urgency of the talking heads prognostications of impending doom for New England you’d think they were destined for a losing record. That hasn’t been the case. New England does have some issues to deal with–Brady is still gaining a rapport with the upheaval in his receiving corps but the team has taken care of business posting a 10-3 record on the season. They haven’t been great on the road going 3-3 SU, 1-5 ATS but they’ve been dominant at home going 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS. The big question going forward will be the impact of the loss of tight end Rob Gronkowski. He was Tom Brady’s favorite receiving target and the Patriots looked much more potent with him in the lineup.

The Dolphins may have been this season’s most talked about NFL team–for the wrong reasons. Instead of being derailed by the Richie Incognito fiasco they’ve let their play do the talking and their recent on field success have overshadowed the team’s locker room issues. The Dolphins remain a very ‘under the radar’ team although they’ve gained the attention of Las Vegas ‘wiseguys’ who have been riding the team’s improvement in recent weeks. Tough spot for New England–they’ve not done particularly well on the road this season and will try to work through the loss of Gronkowski in a very hostile environment. Even with the line movement on this game we think there is still value with the home team and expect to see the Dolphins win outright.

BET MIAMI DOLPHINS PK OVER NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS