NFL Football Betting: Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

NFL Football Betting:  Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts were a well known quantity coming into the season but the Tennessee Titans have been something of an ‘under the radar’ surprise. The Titans were 6-10 last year but are finally showing some progress under third year coach Mike Munchak. They enter this contest with a 5-6 SU record and with two of their four remaining games against bottom feeders Jacksonville and moribund Houston have a good shot of equaling or improving upon last year’s mark. More important has been improved play ‘in the trenches’ which might not show up in the W/L record immediately but will pay dividends down the road. The Colts are coming off a lopsided loss to an improving Arizona team but are still in good shape with a 7-4 record on the season.

The Titans are markedly improved from last season and this year should be seen as one in which progress was made despite their eventual W/L record. Tennessee spent a ton of money in free agency and revamped their coaching staff with the most significant acquisition being defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. Williams is something of a ‘heel’ in the NFL these days based on his role in the New Orleans Saints’ ‘bounty gate’ fiasco but he’s a first rate defensive mind. Also working against the Titans in terms of public perception (and pointspread valuation) is the fact that starting quarterback Jake Locker who is out for the year. The silver lining to this ‘dark cloud’ is the backup–former Buffalo Bills’ starter Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Harvard graduate is (as you’d expect) one of the sharper quarterbacks in the league and has done a credible job in relief.

Indy is laying what looks like a deceptively small number at first glance but with good reason. They’ve been a mediocre pointspread team this year (5-5 ATS) and have shown a tendency to ‘play down’ to their competition. From an ATS standpoint Indy has dominated head to head play but only one of their last six wins came by more than six points. The public thinks that Indy is better than they really are and simultaneously thinks Tennessee is worse. That’s a combination that produces line value and we’ll take the points.