NFL Football Preview: Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos

NFL Football Preview:  Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos

The Dallas Cowboys are coming off a tough road loss to the San Diego Chargers and now they face one of their toughest tests of the season–hosting Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. The Broncos are not only 4-0 and statistically the best team in the NFL by a wide margin but Manning is on a pace to re write the league record book. The Broncos have a +88 scoring differential which is 26 points better than the second best team in the league that that category, the Seattle Seahawks. The 2-2 Cowboys are just +19 in that category.

Heading into the 2012 season with Peyton Manning moving to a new team there were many pundits that suggested that he’d never regain the form of his prime. In a way they were right–he’s playing better now than he *ever* has. So how good is Manning this year? He leads the league in total quarterback rating (91.4) with 16 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He’s getting help from running back Knowshon Moreno and the Denver defense is solid as well.

Dallas isn’t a bad team and much maligned quarterback Tony Romo has played well this year. Romo has a very respectable 8 TD to 1 interception ratio but that’s nowhere near Manning’s stratospheric form. At some point the Broncos’ success–and the public perception of that success–will catch up with them and prices will have us looking to play against them. For this game at least we have little if any interest in Dallas. The Cowboys have been a horrific pointspread team in recent years and particularly at home where they’re on a 3-10 ATS run. The Broncos, meanwhile, are on a 11-1 SU/10-1-1 ATS run as a favorite of -3′ to -9′ points. We certainly understand those making a contrarian case for the Cowboys. Over the longterm taking points at home in the NFL is a profitable strategy and especially getting a team of the Cowboys’ quality taking more than a touchdown. We understand that strategy, but we’re not going to get in front of the Broncos’ freight train at this point. There will be opportunities to go against Denver as the year progresses but we’d much rather be on them in this game.