Super Bowl Betting: Odd or Even Score Prop

There are no shortage of Super Bowl prop bets with more and more added every year. Nevada sports books like the LVH or Wynn offer 300 or 400 props on the big game. Offshore books–which aren’t limited by Nevada Gaming Commission rules on what type of bet can be offered–get even more imaginative with props on the pre show, halftime show, TV ratings, etc. While many casual sports fans snicker at the esoteric nature of some of these prop bets serious handicappers know that these bets can sometime offer the best wagering value of anything available on the Super Bowl. Among the myriad of Super Bowl prop bets our favorite bets are ones that can cash regardless of which team wins the game.

Another important concept to keep in mind regarding prop bets. Don’t get sucked in to the misconception that any play that requires you to leave a ‘favorite’ price is a ‘square’ or poor value play. The opposite is frequently true. Value can be found at any price and prop bet favorites are often overlays. The reason for this is that many recreational players don’t bother to do the math with many prop bets and simply gravitate to the side that offers the biggest payout. The prop we’ll look at here is a perfect example of this:

SEA/DEN TOTAL ODD -130
SEA/DEN TOTAL EVEN +100

To the uninitiated this would appear to be a random prop where the outcome is a 50/50 function of randomness similar to a coin flip. That would be wrong. To explain why this is not a random proposition we’ll turn to a well known concept of NFL football handicapping–the importance of the numbers ‘7’ and ‘3’ as ‘key numbers’. Simply stated, the most common margins of victory in NFL football is 3 and 7 and multiples thereof. The reason for this should be readily apparent–the most common scores are touchdowns (with PAT) and field goals.

This means that odd total scores occur with much greater frequency than even number total scores. So while the ‘amateurs’ might take the ‘even’ prop thinking they’re getting a random occurrence at a pick’em price we’ll suggest doing just the opposite:

BET SEA/DEN TOTAL ODD -130