Week 3 NFL Picks

Week 3 NFL Picks

What we’ve learned through the first two weeks of the 2014 NFL season can be summarized in three words: expect the unexpected. Leaving aside the myriad of alarming off the field landmines, the games themselves have been rife with unpredictability. The Patriots getting thumped by Miami? The Saints and Colts both 0-2? Derek Anderson and Austin Davis leading teams to victory? Seattle being manhandled by the Chargers? Denver looking average on offense? Dallas and Washington playing good defense? What the hell is going on out there? Including Atlanta, 11 home teams were installed as favorites for Week 3, but home chalk is only 9-15 ATS through two weeks. Here’s a look at this weekend’s most intriguing matchups.

SAN DIEGO AT BUFFALO -2.5

The 2-0 Bills against a Chargers team that just got done dropkicking Seattle. Who knew this would one of the week’s biggest games? Buffalo has gotten off to fast starts before only to faceplant as the season progressed. That said, CJ Spiller is healthy (for now) and EJ Manuel isn’t committing catastrophic mistakes. The Bolts did an about-face last week after losing to Arizona in Week 1. Old man Antonio Gates racked three touchdowns and the defense held the ‘Hawks to 288 yards. West coast team heading east for a 1pm start? Chargers are 5-0 ATS on their last five road tilts. Buffalo is 8-2 ATS in their last ten at home. Ride the Bills bandwagon until the wheels fall off.

Bet Buffalo -2.5

MINNESOTA AT NEW ORLEANS -10

This one will tell us a lot about the Saints. Is their defense really as suspect as it appeared versus Atlanta and Cleveland? Is Drew Brees in for a down season? Will Sean Payton and Rob Ryan kiss and make up? Meanwhile, the Vikings are staring into the abyss. No Adrian Peterson for possibly the season, a defense languishing in mediocrity, and Matt Cassel is still under center. Mike Zimmer has been dealt a 7-2 offsuit and an ornery New Orleans team isn’t likely to show sympathy. Vikings are 4-2 ATS in their last six road games. Saints are 10-1-1 ATS in their last twelve as home favorites. Lot of points, but Brees in the dome is usually money.

Bet New Orleans -10

GREEN BAY AT DETROIT -2.5

Based on recent trends, neither of these teams has been kind to bettors. Packers are 2-8-2 ATS in their last twelve overall. Lions are 2-5 ATS in their last seven at home. Detroit’s high flying offense took a nosedive in Carolina. Green Bay was fortunate to dispose of a pesky Jets team that blew a 21-3 lead. Both secondaries are pretty bad, so Aaron Rodgers and Matt Stafford should be in for big days. The O/U of 53 is the highest total for the week. Rodgers has a 9-1 career record against the Lions with 19 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.

Bet Green Bay +2.5, Bet the Over 53

DENVER AT SEATTLE -5

Super Bowl rematch? Not really. These teams are very different than the ones who played in February. Perhaps both Denver and Seattle were peeking ahead in Week 2 because neither performed to their maximum. The Broncos’ offense might miss Eric Decker, Knowshon Moreno, and Wes Welker more than they thought. Welker will return from his drug suspension on Sunday, but his risk for concussion remains. Denver is 1-4 ATS in their last five overall. Seahawks are 17-5 ATS at home in their last 22. A Seattle win with a Denver cover is possible, but the ‘Hawks at home are scary good.

Bet Seattle -5